When you think about watching horror movies, you think about serial killers, paranormal activity, slashers, invading aliens, and pretty much anything with jump scares. But the scariest movie released this year, especially for October, is not about any of those things. It’s not even included in the horror genre.
It’s an action movie called *A House of Dynamite* about a nuclear attack incoming to America, and how our defenses cannot stop it.
Prior to this movie, I didn’t know that defending against a nuclear attack had a 55% success rate (the movie listed it as 61%, presumably to give the illusion of some more hope). That statistic alone is enough to worry.
But what makes this film truly unsettling isn’t just what it depicts on screen but the timing of its release and the real life nuclear politics happening now.
The Real Threat: New START’s Expiration
While A House of Dynamite presents a fictional scenario of nuclear catastrophe, the actual shield protecting America from such a nightmare is approaching its expiration date. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START, is set to expire on February 5, 2026—just months away. This isn’t a coincidence that should be lost on anyone watching this film in October 2025.
New START is the last remaining major nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, the two nations that collectively control approximately 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads. The treaty limits each side to no more than 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems. More importantly, it includes verification measures like on-site inspections and data exchanges that reduce the risk of miscalculation—the kind of miscalculation that could lead to scenarios like those depicted in A House of Dynamite.
Without this treaty, there would be no legal limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. No inspections. No transparency. Just two superpowers, each with thousands of nuclear weapons, operating in the dark.
To understand what’s at stake, consider Russia’s current nuclear arsenal. As of October 2025, Russia possesses approximately 5,580 nuclear warheads—the largest stockpile on Earth. This includes about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads (currently limited by New START), plus thousands more in reserve or awaiting dismantlement. Their delivery systems form a formidable “nuclear triad” of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and strategic bombers, enhanced by emerging technologies like hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered torpedoes.
The United States isn’t far behind, with approximately 5,044 warheads and similar delivery capabilities. Together, these arsenals represent destructive power measured in hundreds of megatons—enough to end civilization as we know it several times over.
This is the reality that makes the movie so terrifying. It doesn’t need supernatural elements or elaborate gore. It simply asks: What if those weapons were actually used? What if our 55% success rate at interception isn’t enough?
The timing of this film’s release, just before New START requires critical negotiations, feels almost prophetic. Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, halting inspections and data sharing, though it claims to still adhere to the numerical limits. In September 2025, President Vladimir Putin offered a one-year voluntary extension of the treaty’s central limits starting February 2026, framing it as avoiding a “grave mistake.”
The United States, under President Trump’s administration, has expressed openness to arms control but ties it to resolving the Ukraine conflict and including China in any future agreements. As of now, formal negotiations haven’t begun. The clock is ticking.
If New START expires without a replacement or extension, it would mark the end of over 50 years of bilateral nuclear arms control between these superpowers. Experts describe it as a potential “watershed moment” that could trigger a new arms race. Without treaty limits, both nations could expand their arsenals, upload reserve warheads to existing missiles, and develop new weapon systems without constraint.
The mechanisms preventing nuclear war are more fragile than they’ve been in decades. The film’s premise—that American defenses cannot reliably stop a nuclear attack—reflects an uncomfortable truth. Even with systems like the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense interceptors, perfect defense against a massive nuclear strike remains impossible. Mutually Assured Destruction isn’t a fail-safe; it’s a bet that rational actors will never pull the trigger.
But what happens when diplomatic frameworks collapse? When verification stops? When transparency disappears? The space between deterrence and disaster narrows.
The movie’s fictional scenario becomes more plausible in a world without New START. Without treaty limits, Russia could increase its deployed warheads from 1,550 to potentially thousands more. The U.S. would respond in kind. China, rapidly expanding its arsenal from 500 to a projected 1,000+ warheads by 2030, would accelerate its buildup. The strategic stability that has prevented nuclear war for decades would erode.
What makes A House of Dynamite the scariest movie of the year isn’t its special effects or performances. It’s the realization that the scenario it depicts isn’t confined to fiction. The weapons exist. The tensions are real. And the treaty that helps keep those weapons in check is about to expire.
But New START has worked since 2011, providing a framework that benefits both American and Russian security. Its potential demise isn’t inevitable—it’s a choice.
Perhaps the greatest fear shouldn’t be what happens on screen, but what might happen if our leaders fail to act in the coming months. The scariest movie of 2025 isn’t just entertainment. It’s a warning about what we stand to lose if we let our defenses, albeit diplomatic ones, crumble away.
The treaty negotiations needed to prevent a real nightmare are happening right now, just offscreen. And unlike a movie, we can’t walk out of this theater when it gets too frightening.

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